Value bets

Checking the value of a bet can be realized here.

1. Description

The Value Bets strategy assumes betting on picks whose probability of success estimated by the bettor is greater than the one corresponding to the odds offered to the bet by the bookmakers.

Unlike the Kelly strategy, this strategy assumes betting a fixed stake on all bets and in the long term, the gain being guaranteed by the added value of the picks.

A value bet can be identified with one of the formulas:

b < q/p

v = b * p / 100; v > 1

Where:

  • p - the probability of winning
  • q - the probability of losing
  • b - odds
  • v - the value of the bet

Advantages / Disadvantages

  • It is very useful for bettors able to estimate the real probability of winning the bets but it causes losses to those who superficially estimate the probability and who only consider that they are doing it well.
    Anticipating the real probability of winning a prognosis is achieved through a complex analysis that besides statistics includes many other aspects, such as: the advantage of one's own field, how well a team plays at home or away, the direct results, the moment form, the importance of the match and the motivation of the teams, the state of the weather, the unavailable players, the internal problems of the teams, and so on. Each aspect counts more or less depending on the event, and how much importance is given to a particular aspect depends on the betters.

2. Settings

The strategy settings are shown in the image below and described under it:

Value bets - Strategy settings
Strategy settings

Where we have like this:

  • Probability of winning estimated by betters;
  • The odds offered to the bet by the bookmakers;
  • The button for obtaining the value of the bet according to the settings.

3. Information obtained

The information obtained is presented in the image below and described under it:

Value bets - Information obtained
Information obtained

Where we have like this:

  • The value of the bet;
  • The odds corresponding to the probability of winning estimated to prognostic by the bettor;
  • Possibility to add the bet to the Monte Carlo simulation method (available to logged in users).
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